Behavioral Finance | Multibagger Shares

April 30, 2026

Hero section: title 'Second-Level Thinking' with subtitle, dark blue background and a four-block grid labeled Trader (gray), Compounder (green), Drift (light gray), Speculator (orange).

Second-Level Thinking: Howard Marks’s First-Chapter Discipline for Indian Value Investors

Howard Marks's most important idea: investing edge is built by going beyond the surface reaction. A practical three-habit discipline, illustrated with Titan Biotech's FY25 audited numbers.

April 29, 2026

Hero header with title Representativeness Heuristic and subtitle; a 2x2 color infographic showing Lucky (gray), Disciplined Investor (green), Confused (light gray), Bias-Trapped (orange).

Representativeness Heuristic: Why Indian Investors Confuse “Looks Like the Next Multibagger” with Probability

The representativeness heuristic — Kahneman & Tversky's 1972 framework — explains why Indian retail investors keep paying for stocks that resemble past multibaggers but don't share the underlying base-rate process markers. Titan Biotech FY25 illustrates the opposite — process over pattern.

April 29, 2026

Hero banner: title 'Capex-to-Depreciation Ratio' with green accent marks and a circular FY25 infographic on a dark blue gradient background; subtitle mentions reinvestment discipline.

Capex-to-Depreciation Ratio: The 60-Second Reinvestment-Discipline Filter Every Indian Value Investor Must Master

The Capex-to-Depreciation Ratio is the cleanest 60-second filter for whether a business is genuinely reinvesting (above 1.0x) or quietly harvesting (below 1.0x). Titan Biotech FY25 audited numbers — ~Rs.11 Cr CWIP, ~Rs.57 Cr gross block, ~7% depreciation/gross block, ~103% CFO/Operating Profit and only ~Rs.3 Cr total borrowings — illustrate disciplined, internally funded reinvestment. Educational illustration; not a buy/sell recommendation.

April 29, 2026

Dark blue page header with 'Mr. Market' title and subtitle, followed by a horizontal bar chart of yearly figures FY20–FY25 (FY25 in green, value 11).

Mr. Market: Benjamin Graham’s 1949 Parable for Treating Daily Quotes as Offers, Not Verdicts

Benjamin Graham's 1949 Mr. Market parable is the operating system for ignoring daily price quotes. Titan Biotech FY25's audited quiet — ₹3 cr borrowings, 103% CFO/PAT, 36.4% ROCE — illustrates the underlying factory that survives every tick.